Asher Butt and Abid Sultan
Book favs hit 2 / 4
My favs hit 0 / 4
My place in frame 3 / 4
Upset winners 1
Fluke winners 1
Race-by-race breakdown
| Race | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | Book fav | My fav |
| R1 · 7:00 | 1Tatla One | 2Quiz | 3Flokey | Tatla One ✓ | Myuna — missed |
| R2 · 7:35 | 1Black Fire | 2Chhota Multani | 3Roxy | Chhota Multani — 2nd | Dogar Choice — missed |
| R3 · 8:10 | 1Classic Mystery | 2Paddington | 3Be A Man | Classic Mystery ✓ | Be A Man — 3rd |
| R4 · 8:45 | 1Awan Choice | 2Imperius | 3Golden Choice | Sarkar Raj — missed | Sarkar Raj — missed |
Selection hit map
R1 My fav missed My place missed My fluke won ✓
R2 My fav missed My place 2nd ✓ My fluke 1st ✓
R3 My fav 3rd My place missed My fluke won ✓
R4 My fav missed My place 2nd ✓ My fluke 3rd ✓
Result type by race
R1 Book fav won
R2 Book place won
R3 Book fav won
R4 Upset winner
A humbling day for the weight-based system — but one with important lessons. Here is the full verdict:
Race 1 was the book’s clearest vindication of the meeting so far. Tatla One (8-5), the book’s favourite, cruised home exactly as predicted — vindicating the book’s form-over-weight call that I had rejected. My favourite Myuna (9-0) did not feature in the frame at all, continuing the now well-established pattern at this meeting where the 9-0 top weight in a Division VI/VII field underperforms on the 900m distance. Quiz (7-10) surging to second and Flokey (7-8) completing the frame in third is a remarkable outcome — both horses from the bottom of the weights finishing 2nd and 3rd on a day when the top weight was unplaced. My fluke Tatla One won, which is a technical hit but in the wrong column of my card.
Race 2 was the most analytically significant result of the day. Black Fire (7-12), my fluke, won outright — beating Chhota Multani (the book’s favourite, my place) into second and leaving Dogar Choice (9-0, my favourite) entirely unplaced. This is now a confirmed pattern at the meeting: Dogar Choice at 9-0 on 900m is not converting despite carrying clear top weight authority. The book was closer to the truth making Chhota Multani the favourite, and Black Fire’s win from the mid-weight cluster is consistent with the pace-dominated nature of 900m racing at LRC this season. Roxy completing the frame as a surprise third rounds off a card where the bottom weights dominated entirely.
Race 3 was the book’s second vindication of the evening. Classic Mystery (7-12), the book’s favourite at the bottom of the weights, won in a close finish over Paddington — directly contradicting my argument that Be A Man (8-10, my favourite) carried decisive weight authority. Be A Man managed only third. This is the strongest evidence yet that on 900m at LRC, pure form and pace are consistently overriding weight concessions that would be decisive at 1000m or beyond. My fluke Classic Mystery won, which is a hit — but again in the wrong column.
Race 4 produced the day’s genuine upset. Awan Choice (8-5), my fluke, won outright — beating Imperius (my place, 8-6) into a creditable second and sending Golden Choice (book’s fluke, 7-12) to third. The real story is Sarkar Raj (9-0) — agreed favourite by both the book and me — finishing completely out of the frame. This is now multiple days in a row where the outright 9-0 favourite in the closing race has failed to convert.
The critical lesson from Day 6: The 900m distance at LRC’s Summer Meeting is systematically producing outcomes that defy weight logic. Across six days, the evidence is now compelling — at 900m, pace, gate speed, and recent form are dominating. The top weight advantage that is decisive at 1000m becomes significantly diluted at the shorter trip. My place and fluke selections are hitting the frame consistently (3 of 4 places today), but the favourites built on weight authority are repeatedly finishing outside the money on 900m cards. The system needs recalibration: on 900m days, the book’s form-based calls deserve more weight, and the 9-0 allocation should be treated as a place signal rather than a win signal.
