By Asher Butt and Abid Sultan
A day of mixed fortunes — the book managed three favourites from five declared races while my zero-from-six fav record continues the Winter Meeting’s harsh lesson about top weight at 900m and 1100m.
Book favs hit 3 / 5
My favs hit 0 / 6
Fluke winners 2
Upset winner R1 Lady Sareena
Place winners R6 Sikandar
Race-by-race results
| Race | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | Book fav | My fav |
| R1 · 1:30 Div VII 1000m |
1Lady Sareena | 2Thunder Pride | 3Pocket Power | Pocket Power — 3rd | One Side — out |
| R2 · 2:05 Div V&VI 1100m |
1Sultan Again | 2Naveed-e-Sahar | 3Dogar Choice | Sultan Again ✓ | Raja The Great — out |
| R3 · 2:40 Div III&IV 1100m |
1Haseeb Thunder | 2Safe Bet | 3Be A Man | Safe Bet — 2nd | Be A Man — 3rd |
| R4 · 3:15 Nonchal Cup Maiden |
1Princess Shahami | 2Bella Forever | 3Pakistani Queen | No declared fav | Kitten’s Boy / PakChamp out |
| R5 · 3:50 Memorial Cup 1200m |
1Ghuroor | 2Bella One | 3Almond Eye | Ghuroor ✓ | Almond Eye — 3rd |
| R6 · 4:25 Div I&II 1200m |
1Sikandar | 2Ameera | 3Construct Craft | Dawood Prince — out | Ameera — 2nd |
Selection hit map
R1 My fav out My place out My fluke 2nd ✓
R2 My fav out My place 3rd ✓ My fluke won ✓
R3 My fav 3rd My place 2nd Fluke won ✓
R4 Co-favs out My place 2nd ✓ My fluke 3rd ✓
R5 My fav 3rd My place 2nd ✓ Book fav won ✓
R6 My fav 2nd Book fav out My fluke 3rd ✓
Result type R1 Upset
R2 Book fav won
R3 Fluke won
R4 Maiden open
R5 Book fav won
R6 Place won
Here is the full verdict:
Race 1 — Division VII (1000m): Lady Sareena (8-12), my place selection, won outright as an upset — beating Thunder Pride (my fluke) into second and Pocket Power (book’s favourite) into third. My favourite One Side (9-0) was entirely unplaced. Lady Sareena running second on multiple previous occasions and now winning from 8-12 is a pattern: the handicapper’s consistent allocation signals a horse building toward its win, and today it arrived. My place and fluke both framed — the hierarchy was correct, the top selection wrong.
Race 2 — Division V & VI (1100m): Sultan Again won again — the book’s favourite delivering for the second consecutive meeting. My favourite Raja The Great (9-0) was entirely absent from the frame, continuing the Winter Meeting’s most consistent pattern: the 9-0 allocation at the top of a division is failing to convert into wins while the book’s form picks at 8-6 and below keep delivering. Naveed-e-Sahar ran a surprise second and Dogar Choice (my place) completed the frame in third — my place hit, my fluke hit (Sultan Again was my fluke), but my fav was nowhere.
Race 3 — Division III & IV (1100m): Haseeb Thunder, the book’s fluke at 7-8 — the absolute bottom of the field — won outright. This is the most analytically striking result of the day and arguably of the entire Winter Meeting. Be A Man (9-2, my favourite and the highest weight on the card) ran third. Safe Bet (book’s favourite, my place) ran second. A horse carrying 7-8 beat a horse carrying 9-2 over 1100m in Division III & IV — a weight concession of 18 pounds. If this does not definitively close the argument that LRC racing at these distances in 2026 cannot be predicted by weight logic alone, nothing will.
Race 4 — Nonchal Cup (Maiden Fillies, 1000m): Princess Shahami galloped to glory in 59.1/5 seconds — a complete outsider from the joint third-weight cluster at 8-5, beating both co-favourites Kitten’s Boy and Pakistani Champion (joint 8-8 top weights) out of the frame entirely. My place Bella Forever ran second and my fluke Pakistani Queen ran third — the lower three positions all correctly identified, the winner entirely missed. This maiden race produced exactly what such races always threaten: a result from an unexpected direction within a field where all horses are unproven.
Race 5 — Syed Mansab Ali Shah Memorial Cup (1200m): Ghuroor (8-4), the book’s favourite, won at the wire. Bella One (my place at 8-5) ran a creditable second and Almond Eye (my favourite at 8-7, the top weight) ran third. My top-weight selection framed in third — the weight was right enough to get into the frame but not enough to win. The book’s form pick at 8-4 prevailing over the 8-7 top weight over 1200m maintains the Winter Meeting’s theme: the extended distance is not reversing the form-over-weight dynamic the way the Summer Meeting’s 1000m data suggested it would.
Race 6 — Division I & II (1200m): Sikandar (8-6), the book’s place and my place, won the finale under Abdullah Amir — a well-executed ride on a horse the book correctly identified as a frame candidate. Ameera (9-2, my favourite) ran second — the correct identification of Ameera as the strongest horse in the field, but the wrong hierarchy. Construct Craft (my fluke) completed the frame in third — a solid fluke hit. Dawood Prince (book’s favourite) was unplaced.
Day 5 conclusion: Six races, zero favourites converted for me, three for the book. The most important insight from this meeting day is Race 3: Haseeb Thunder at 7-8 defeating Be A Man at 9-2 over 1100m is now the definitive data point of the LRC Winter Meeting 2026-2027. The weight-based system — which delivered its strongest results during the Summer Meeting’s 1000m cards in senior divisions — is no longer functioning as a reliable predictor at any distance in the Winter Meeting. Sultan Again at 8-6 consistently beating top-weight opponents, and Haseeb Thunder at 7-8 beating an 18-pound weight differential, are not outliers. They are the pattern. The Winter Meeting demands a reset.
